Saturday, July 17, 2010

Inverse Debilitation Indication Hypothesis

Blogging Marathon: Day 15


I have the "Beat the Heat 5K" tonight at 7pm.
I am going to use this race to test a new hypothesis that I have, which I am calling the "Inverse Debilitation Indication Hypothesis".

This is the latest in my running research since the collapse of my "Red Shoe Theory".
The Red Shoe Theory showed initial promise until people heard about it and all ran out and got red shoes.

This new hypothesis makes this prediction:
The performance in any race will be inversely proportional to how the runner feels the week before.


Observations
Shannon was the first to make this observation, as I am always complaining about how awful I feel in the days leading up to a race. We will be doing some very short run and I will be really struggling to even do a 10 min mile.
She says, "That means your going to do great in the race!"

Looking at my running log definitely reveals this pattern.Two days before the Uwharrie 37.5 miler, I wrote:
Ran the dogs 1.6 miles in 18 minutes. OW! Lower back, butt, hamstrings very stiff and sore.Hurts really bad to run. Knees hurting really bad too. Awful
Yet, I ended up far exceeding my expectations in that race, and felt great at the end.

Explanations
There are some possible explanations to the hypothesis, but let's not get into them until we have more data.

This Week
The past week has been awful. I struggled in a 5K last Saturday, and then tried to make up for it with a really hard 16 mile tempo run on Sunday. This left me beat up, really dehydrated, and my calves cramped up pretty bad. They are still knotted up and sore.Add to this a mystery upper back pain that has kept me from getting a good nights sleep in a long time. So I have been exhausted, doing a limping shuffle like a zombie.

Predictions
I generally don't run well in the evenings, or the heat. Combined with how I have felt this week, a realistic expectation would be a time of:  19:50
However, the Inverse Debilitation Indication Hypothesis predicts a great race for me, something like a 19:05. This seems impossible.

We also have another experiment with Barefoot Josh reporting he is under the weather. Given he just ran a marathon, that would be expected. But the Hypothesis predicts a performance exceeding expectations.

Will the Inverse Debilitation Indication Hypothesis pan out?
Stay tuned for tomorrow!

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